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How Tropical Storm Barry will impact Arkansas this weekend

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Click here for the live weather radar.

UPDATED – July 11, 10 a.m.

In its 10 a.m. update The National Hurricane Center just upgraded the system to Tropical Storm Barry, but it will likely strengthen to a Cat. 1 hurricane by the time it makes landfall.  Either way, flooding from rain and storm surge will be the main concern.

RELATED: How the possible Gulf Coast tropical storm could impact Arkansas

RELATED: Everything you need to know about traveling during hurricane season

Special note about the “cone.” The cone is called the cone of uncertainty. It does not show the width of the storm, it shows the margin for error. The red icons show where the center of circulation will likely be, but the cone shows that it could shift in either direction within the cone. The track will be very important to determine where the highest rainfall will  be.

Hurricanes

KTHV

Speaking of landfall, this is what we know. Since it took so long to form, models are having a difficult time nailing down where it will make landfall. Most to trend along the Lousiana coast line although a couple models to show it making landfall in far SE Texas.  It looks like somewhere between Lake Charles and New Orleans will be the spot.

Hurricanes

KTHV

The first thing we will see will be more clouds rolling in on Saturday. Then, wind speeds are expected to pick up. Saturday will be breezy as the system approaches. Tropical storm force winds are winds of 39 mph or higher. I’m not expecting the high wind threat, but it doesn’t take strong winds (about 30 mph is all it takes) to knock down trees or power lines, especially when a lot of rain gets added to the mix.

Hurricanes

KTHV

The rain will be our main concern. The current forecast has the center of circulation (the low) moving right up the middle of the state. The eastern side of the tropical cyclone will have the highest rainfall. This is why the rainfall forecast will be very different if the forecast track shifts east or west. If the track shifts towards the west, our rainfall totals will be higher. If the track shifts towards the east, we will see much less rain.

Hurricanes

KTHV

With the current track, this is the rainfall estimate. The highest totals will be along our eastern and southern counties. We will begin to see the heavy rain first in our S/SE counties early on Sunday morning. Rain will continue through Monday.

Hurricanes

KTHV

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